Ferrari and ZYN Have a Golden Opportunity as Antonelli Falters in Baku

The Nicotine Pouch Formula 1 Championship arrives in Azerbaijan with the Drivers' title closer than it has been for months, and after a dramatic qualifying session around the streets of Baku, Ferrari/ZYN and McLaren/VELO have both been handed an opportunity to make significant gains.

Because of the timing of the GP and qualifying, we can also tell you that George Russell will start Saturday's Azerbaijan Grand Prix from pole position after a commanding qualifying performance, with Charles Leclerc alongside him in second, Oscar Piastri third, Lando Norris fifth and Lewis Hamilton sixth. More significantly for the wider Formula 1 championship, runaway leader Kimi Antonelli made a rare mistake in Q1, hitting the wall at Turn 1 and damaging his suspension, leaving him 16th on the grid. 

For our championship, however, the most intriguing battle is happening immediately behind Russell. After Norris reduced Hamilton's advantage to just five points in Madrid, Ferrari and ZYN suddenly have two McLaren/VELO drivers surrounding their championship contenders on the Baku grid.

Russell Finds Another Level in Qualifying

Mercedes had looked formidable from the beginning of the weekend, with Russell fastest in both Thursday practice sessions before Max Verstappen interrupted his clean sweep by topping FP3.

The final practice session demonstrated just how difficult Baku had become as stronger winds made the already unforgiving street circuit even trickier. Verstappen eventually set a 1:43.922, only 0.099 seconds ahead of Russell, while Hamilton produced an encouraging late lap to finish third, just 0.111 seconds from the fastest time. Leclerc was fifth, with Piastri seventh and Norris eighth.

That suggested qualifying might be extremely close but Russell had other ideas, progressing through qualifying as the fastest driver in both Q1 and Q2 before producing a 1:42.526 in Q3, taking his fifth pole position of the season by an enormous 0.837 seconds from Leclerc. Piastri was another thousandth behind the Ferrari in third, while Isack Hadjar produced an impressive fourth-fastest time on his return to the Red Bull.

For a circuit where slipstreaming can make such a difference, eight tenths was a huge advantage.

Antonelli's Mistake Opens the Door

The biggest story of qualifying came much earlier.

Antonelli entered the weekend with an 81-point lead over Russell in the real Formula 1 Drivers' Championship, having won consecutively at Monza and Madrid, but his Baku qualifying lasted only a few laps.

The Italian hit the inside wall at Turn 1 during Q1 and broke the suspension on his Mercedes. Although his earlier time was theoretically quick enough to take him into Q2, the damage couldn't be repaired in time and Antonelli was left 16th.

Baku has a habit of punishing even small mistakes, and Antonelli now faces the difficult task of fighting through the field on Saturday.

That could have important consequences for our championship as well. Antonelli isn't one of our nicotine-pouch-sponsored drivers, but his ability to finish ahead of – or between – Hamilton, Norris, Leclerc and Piastri can dramatically alter how many points each of them scores.

Leclerc Gives Ferrari and ZYN a Front-Row Start

For Ferrari/ZYN, Leclerc's qualifying performance could hardly have come at a better time.

After finishing fourth in Madrid, Leclerc entered Baku on 167 points, 24 behind Hamilton and 19 behind Norris. His second place on the grid therefore gives him an opportunity to reduce both deficits substantially.

Leclerc's 1:43.363 was only 0.001 seconds faster than Piastri, so the margin between Ferrari/ZYN and McLaren/VELO could scarcely be smaller as they line up second and third.

With Russell starting ahead of them and Antonelli much further back, the opening laps could become particularly important. Baku combines tight corners with an exceptionally long flat-out section, meaning track position matters enormously without necessarily guaranteeing that the starting order will survive for long.

Norris Starts Fifth with Hamilton Directly Behind

The championship fight between Hamilton and Norris is even more finely poised.

After Spain, the standings are:

Norris briefly held provisional pole during Q3, but a lock-up on his final attempt prevented him from improving and he eventually qualified fifth on a 1:43.672. Hamilton, meanwhile, starts immediately behind him in sixth after setting a 1:43.858.

That gives us a very simple championship scenario going into Saturday: only five points separate Hamilton and Norris, and they're starting one place apart.

Norris has already overturned 51 points of the 56-point deficit he faced before Hungary. If that momentum continues in Baku, the championship lead could change hands for the first time in this extraordinary late-season fight.

Hamilton, though, showed considerably more pace in FP3 than his sixth-place qualifying result suggests, and Ferrari have Leclerc starting on the front row.

Piastri Could Be Crucial for VELO

Piastri's third place adds another complication.

While he's 71 points behind Hamilton in our Drivers' Championship, his contribution to McLaren/VELO's pursuit of Ferrari/ZYN has become increasingly important.

The Teams' standings currently read:

McLaren have reduced what was a 90-point deficit after Belgium to 52 points after Madrid, and with Piastri starting third and Norris fifth, they have another opportunity to make progress.

Ferrari have the advantage of Leclerc on the front row, but Hamilton starts behind both McLarens. That creates several possible swings depending on how the four cars finish.

A strong Ferrari result could finally halt the McLaren momentum we've seen since Hungary; a strong McLaren result could bring VELO substantially closer again.

Cadillac and 77 Face Another Difficult Saturday

Things are considerably less encouraging for Cadillac/77.

Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas originally qualified 20th and 22nd respectively, although grid penalties for Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll will move the Cadillacs forward to 19th and 20th on the starting grid.

Bottas was also 21st in FP3, more than 4.6 seconds from Verstappen's fastest time, so the prospect of finally opening 77's Nicotine Pouch Championship account looks difficult on current form.

Baku, however, isn't always a circuit where qualifying tells us much about what the eventual race will look like.

A Saturday Race in Baku

There is also an unusual schedule to remember this weekend.

The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix takes place on Saturday 26 September, rather than Sunday, because Sunday 27 September is Azerbaijan's Remembrance Day. The race starts at 15:00 local time, 12:00 in the UK.

And if ever there were a circuit capable of disrupting a championship battle, Baku would be a strong candidate.

Russell starts from pole, but immediately behind him Leclerc and Piastri have the Ferrari/ZYN versus McLaren/VELO fight on the front row of our championship battle. Norris and Hamilton then start fifth and sixth with only five championship points separating them, while Antonelli's accident has removed one of the drivers who has repeatedly taken the biggest points haul away from our sponsored contenders.

After four consecutive Grands Prix in which McLaren and VELO have eaten into Ferrari and ZYN's advantage, Baku gives Ferrari an opportunity to respond – but it also gives Norris his first realistic chance to leave a race weekend as leader of the Nicotine Pouch Formula 1 Championship.

Saturday could change everything.